Headcount forecast calculator
Where headcount lands in one to five years if people keep leaving at today's rate, some retire, and you hire what you plan to.
Updates as you type. Nothing you enter leaves this page.
Start − retiring − leaving + hired
Each year: end = start − retirements − (start − retirements) × attrition rate + hires. The next year starts from that end. Attrition applies to the people who are not retiring; new hires join at the end of the year, so they are not counted as leaving in the year they arrive.
To hold headcount flat, hires need to replace retirements plus the expected leavers: about retirements + (headcount − retirements) × attrition.
Worked example. 500 people, 14% attrition, 6 retirements and 60 hires a year: year 1 ends at 500 − 6 − 69.2 + 60 = 484.8.
One rate for the whole organisation hides where the pressure is. Divisions with high attrition or an older workforce shrink faster than the average suggests.
The same forecast by division, with retirements by name and the skills you lose
The Workforce Forecasting Toolkit takes each division's real attrition from your export, retirements from dates of birth, and shows which critical skills thin out if nobody acts. Every assumption is editable.
Forecasting questions
Which attrition rate should I use?
Your actual rate over the last twelve months is the natural start — the free attrition rate calculator works it out. Adjust it for what you expect: a market cooling, a retention programme, a site closing.
How do I count retirements?
People reaching your retirement age in each year, from dates of birth. The Workforce Forecasting Toolkit does this from the export.
Is this a prediction?
It is an expected value from your assumptions: what happens if the rates hold. Change the inputs to see best and worst cases.